Oscar Predictions

Supporting Actor- Christian Bale (The Fighter). He's the front-runner, and his best competition in this category is Geoffrey Rush for The King's Speech.

Supporting Actress- Amy Adams (The Fighter). This is the most difficult category for me to predict. Gambling rules state that if there are two front-runners, you go for the least likely, but the least likely is very hard to say. Hailee Steinfeld for True Grit and Melissa Leo for The Fighter I believe are the two front runners which leaves the other three less likely. Helena Bonham Carter did an excellent job in The King's Speech, but she managed to be overshadowed by the other two actors. Jacki Weaver for Animal Kingdom was well-reviewed but not watched by many which may include Academy voters. In this case, Weaver is the least likely, but she may be so unlikely that she's beyond everyone's radar.

Adapted Screenplay- The Social Network. The dialogue is perfect, and Aaron Sorkin created The West Wing.

Original Screenplay- The King's Speech. The best competition in this category according to the Academy is The Fighter because of its nomination for Director whereas Inception, The Kids Are All Right, and Another Year did not receive that honor.

Original Score- The Social Network. Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross are very far in the front despite my belief that an 'adapted' score should be in here (Black Swan).

Original Song- 127 Hours. Country Strong was the frontrunner at one point, but the movie was badly reviewed, and the winner last year was Crazy Heart, another movie about country music. The next place would be Toy Story 3, but I'm not a Randy Newman fan. It's a far cry because A.R. Rahman won previously for Slumdog Millionaire, but the song (Jai Ho) has become an anthem for joy.

Animated Film- Toy Story 3.

Art Direction- Alice in Wonderland. Tim Burton films usually win in this category.

Cinematography- The King's Speech, but on second though, I think it will be a Deakins year for True Grit. He's been nominated more than a few times and has never won.

Costume Design- Alice in Wonderland.

Makeup- The Wolfman.

Sound Editing- Inception.

Sound Mixing- The King's Speech because of the quiet environments and use of dialogue. The Social Network could pull an upset as well as True Grit, but Inception is probably the frontrunner. Given its lack of necessary nominations (including Director and Editing), it will either sweep its categories or only win one or two.

Visual Effects- Inception. I would bet my college fund on it (which is currently $13.88).

Documentary- Restrepo. Exit Through the Gift Shop has debates over its authenticity, and the creators are silent about such claims. The Academy most likely won't go for it, but the only other documentary on everyone's radar is Inside Job. I'm betting on Restrepo.

Documentary Short Subject- Killing in the Name for its subject material.

Film Editing- The King's Speech. I can't remember a movie that won Picture but not Editing in the past, but I can name a movie that won Picture without capturing Screenlay (that would be Million Dollar Baby, losing Adapted to Sideways).

Foreign Language Film- Biutiful because of its recognition of Javier Bardem for Actor. Dogtooth is simply too controversial for a win.

Animated Short Film- Day & Night.

Live Action Short Film- based on trailers, Na We We. I really have no clue nor the opportunity to see the nominees, so this is a mostly blind guess.

Directing- David Fincher for The Social Network. He does many brilliant things with the film despite the fact that I appreciated it more than liked it.

Best Actress- Natalie Portman. She runs the show with Black Swan and has no other real competition except for Annette Bening. Those are enough reasons, but I will add that Portman was robbed for a win for Closer.

Best Actor- Colin Firth. A respectable nominee last year, he's now the frontrunner.

Best Picture- The King's Speech because of its gathering storm of publicity after The Social Network.